After the 2023 credibility crisis, the voluntary carbon market is restructuring. Here's the honest 2026–2030 outlook — w...
The voluntary carbon market was worth approximately $2 billion at its 2021 peak. By the end of 2023, after the REDD+ scandal and a wave of greenwashing litigation, it had contracted to around $750 million. That's the crash. The rebuild is happening, but it's slower, more expensive, and structurally different from the pre-crisis version.
Here's what the 2026–2030 period actually looks like.
The REDD+ credibility crisis was not just a ratings problem. It revealed three systemic failures:
Baseline manipulation. Projects claimed they were preventing deforestation at rates that independent satellite analysis showed were never happening. The counterfactual — "what would have happened without the project" — was systematically overstated.
Permanence shortfalls. Buffer pools, designed to insure against reversal of sequestered carbon, were undersized relative to actual reversal events (Australian wildfires, Brazilian policy reversals). REDD+ projects in Brazil lost significant carbon when the Bolsonaro administration reduced enforcement.
Additionality failures. Projects received credits for activities that would have happened anyway — renewable energy projects in regions where renewables were already economic, conservation on land with no credible development threat.
The ICVCM Core Carbon Principles were the structural response. They don't fix all three problems, but they provide a verifiable threshold that the pre-2023 market lacked.
Supply side is shrinking, quality is rising. Total credit issuance from Verra and Gold Standard declined in 2023–2024 as projects undergo re-verification under stricter methodologies. The lower end of the market — cheap avoidance credits with weak additionality — is being delisted or losing buyer interest. Volume will recover but the composition is shifting toward higher-quality and higher-cost credits.
Demand side is restructuring, not collapsing. Corporate demand for offsets has not disappeared — it has become more discriminating. Microsoft's carbon removal programme signed contracts with DAC and ocean CDR providers at volumes that were unthinkable before 2022. Shopify's sustainability fund committed to early-stage removal technology. The buyers for cheap REDD+ credits have not been replaced; the buyers for high-quality removal credits are scaling up.
Article 6.4 Paris Agreement infrastructure is being built. The international compliance carbon market — government-to-government credit transfers under Paris Agreement Article 6 — was agreed at COP29 in Azerbaijan (2024). The UN supervisory body for Article 6.4 is now operational. This creates a compliance backstop for high-quality credits that meet Paris Article 6 standards, providing a new pricing floor.
CORSIA demand is growing. Aviation under CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) requires airlines to offset growth in international aviation emissions above 2019 levels. Phase 1 (2024–2026) is voluntary; Phase 2 (2027–2035) is mandatory for most countries. IATA estimates CORSIA demand at 150–300 million tonnes per year by the mid-2030s. Supply constraints are already visible at the quality end.
For the 2026–2030 period:
Removal credits (DAC, biochar, enhanced weathering): €200–500 will persist. The technology cost curve for DAC is declining (€800 per tonne at commercial scale 2023; projected €150–300 by 2030 per BloombergNEF), but still well above avoidance credit prices.
High-integrity nature-based avoidance (CCB-certified REDD+, Gold Standard): €20–60. Recovery from the 2023 lows, supported by ICVCM CCP certification and institutional buyer return. Growth is moderate, constrained by supply quality.
Article 6.4-eligible credits: Premium of €5–15 over equivalent VCM credits once the market matures. The Paris alignment claim justifies the premium for compliance buyers (airlines, governments).
Legacy unrated avoidance: €1–3 and declining. No institutional buyer interest; retail market for 'feel-good' offsetting only.
Post-crisis, carbon market reform has included a parallel digital infrastructure layer. Blockchain-based carbon registries — built on Ethereum, Polygon, and dedicated carbon chains — have moved from novelty to functional alternative to centralised registries.
Key developments:
The tokenisation layer adds transparency and accessibility but doesn't fix underlying credit quality. A tokenised bad credit is still a bad credit. The post-2023 focus has been on tokenising only CCP-eligible or Gold Standard credits.
Ireland has a niche but growing role:
Credit supply: Peatland restoration, native forestry, and coastal blue carbon projects can issue verified credits. The market infrastructure (aggregators, project developers familiar with Irish land law and planning) is underdeveloped.
Credit demand: Under CSRD, 2,500+ Irish companies will need to disclose their emissions and offsetting programmes. This creates a domestic demand base. Currently most Irish corporate offset purchasing goes through international brokers to international projects.
Tech and finance: Irish financial services firms — particularly those with ESG fund mandates — are active in carbon credit derivative markets. Several Dublin-based fintechs are building credit trading infrastructure.
MSCI/McKinsey and Bloomberg Intelligence have convergent forecasts of $10–50 billion VCM by 2030, depending on corporate ambition and regulatory development. The range is wide because demand depends on:
Even at the low end of $10 billion by 2030 — versus $750 million in 2024 — that's a 13x market expansion. The growth is not evenly distributed. High-quality removal and Paris-aligned credits capture the growth; cheap legacy avoidance does not.
The market is rebuilding on better foundations. For Irish companies, the opportunity window is open but the rules have changed. Engage with quality infrastructure now, or spend 2028–2030 fixing credibility problems that could have been designed out.
Michael English is a technology entrepreneur and writer focused on blockchain infrastructure, carbon markets, and enterprise technology. He co-founded IMPT (impt.io), a carbon credit tokenisation platform, and BMIC (bmic.ai). Based in Ireland.